DC

DC

Monday, November 19, 2012

Sunday Hand of the Day -- What Would You Do?

Triple P returned to the Chuck Sunday for a quick three-hour session, which was relatively uneventful.  The following hand went down in the first 15 minutes.  Villain was a Reg; a woman in her mid-thirties who I've played with before.  While I don't know her well, my impression is that she's capable and aggressive.  In the mere 15 minutes I had been at the table, her stack had taken several hundred dollar swings.  In short, she's not afraid to get her money in the middle.  She began the hand with about $600.  Pete has $310 and is in middle position for the action: 
 
Villain limps for $2 in early position.  One caller.  Action gets to Pete, who looks down at 99.  Pete raises to $12.  It folds around to Villain who calls $10 more.  Second limper comes along.
 
Flop [$39 in pot]:  T 6 4 rainbow.
 
Villain and limper both check.  Pete bets $28.  Villain calls.  Limper folds.
 
Turn 4.  Check; Check.
 
River 2.  Villain bets $50.
 
What's your play?   
 
[result will be posted in comments]

14 comments:

  1. Based on her aggressive nature and the money in the pot I would call. Hard without more history to narrow her hands. I am guessing that you are ahead, but she might be playing something like 10-9 sooted and and was a bit fearful of kicker problems. But ... if she hit top pair I would have expected more aggression. If you raise and she comes over the top you would have to fold. I'll guess you called and won the pot. Unsure what she might have had.

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  2. When you check back the turn, you now almost have to call the river. otherwise you are far too susceptible to being bluffed off the best hand. a call here will be profitable in the long run.

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  3. what would i do? well first off, u really think this woman is a good player? too much variance in her stack size to suit me. u couldve avoided this by betting the turn. she is putting u on AK no pair at best, so u have to call.

    then once the hand loses, id cuss her out according to what her ethnic background was, and whether or not she had a goddamned cigerette in her hand, same way i did someone else before i finally realized i was in no more shape to play and needed to go to bed.

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  4. I probably [begrudgingly] call this one:

    When she calls on the flop she can have
    - small percentage that she called with 2 overs (10%)
    - T X hand (40%)
    - second and third pairs (25%)
    - Random draws; 87, 98, 75, 35 (25%)

    The 4 on the turn hits a few of her combos, if she hadn't already outflopped you.

    I think the $50 river bet puts her at 65 / 35 value / bluff. Given that you're calling $50 to win $150, you need to be right about 1/3 of the time, making this roughly an even money call.

    It's worth noting that you have played with her before. She therefore knows that you can make folds and is perhaps taking advantage given your past history and your turn check. If I'm you (with your historical image), I think I call this.

    As an aside: tell me this is a blond Hispanic lady who rarely speaks. I think I know this reg., and she is an AWFUL player. She irritates the hell out of me with her playing literally any two cards and calling to the river hoping to improve...

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  6. I called. I thought given my line, and the board, it would be too easy for her to try and bluff the pot on the river. I had a hard time putting her on a hand that hit that board all that hard, particularly given her limp-call of $12. Of course, she flipped 6-4 for the boat...

    Took an hour or so to get back to even. Eventually got up about $100 and called it a day . . .

    @ Poker Meister - Nah. Light skinned black lady. I've seen her a few times before. She and another reg were just going at it most of my three hours at the table. Raising, re-raising . . . $150 river bluffs, etc. Every hand they played was a huge pot. Lady got the best of the dude, including a hand where he raise pre, she three bet and he called. Flop was Q high. She checked, he bet, she called. Turn blanked, he bet, she called. River was a Q. He bet $200. She tanked and shoved. He mucked. Total bluff. Chick claimed to our end that she had quads . . . It was actually somewhat fund to watch.

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  7. I call there. I think I'm beat figuring she played something stupid like 3-5 for the straight or 4-5 for trips but I also think she could have 6-7 or 7-8. Personally I think she bets a bit stronger if she really is bluffing the river, maybe 70-75 instead of 50.

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  8. Yep, I would be $50 dollars lighter as well, hard to fold with only the one over + her scatty reputation

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  9. Given her reputation, it seems like a crying call is in order. In my experience though, very few 1/2 players make thin value bets with just one pair. Usually it will go check, check. Most will not bet just top pair for value, and I think for most 1/2 players this is a clear fold. A comment above talks about that if you don't call, you'll get bluffed off of the best hands. Most 1/2 players do NOT try to bluff the river in these cases. Usually when they bet, and especially when they bet big, they have it.

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  10. I'm putting her on 6-4 and making the fold. But that's me.

    s.i.

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  11. Didn't read what other people said yet, but I would fold. If she can have random gutters here, then she can also have random 4s. You are behind, and the bet size without any other reads looks like a valuebet.

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  12. snap call and lol at calling a limp/call 64 from ep a reg

    more like fish

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