Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Back from the Desert

Back in the office and slammed.  Paying the price for daring to take two days off from work . . . 
It was a brief, but good, trip.  I met up with a bunch of friends who are now located all over the country, which made for an arduous response to every bartender who greeted us with the customary: "soooo, where are you guys from?"  Next time, I think we'll all just lie.  Macon, Georgia sounds like a solid response . . .
I arrived midnight, Wednesday, after an uneventful flight, quickly checked in to Aria, and met up with a friend from Chicago who was second to hit town.  By 1:30 a.m., after some hands of video poker and an unsuccessful attempt to strike it rich on the Ms. Kitty and Sex in the City slots (um, I wish I was kidding . . .), I was already down $300 and decided it only seemed rational to try and win it all back at the black jack tables.  So, Chicago and I sat down to make our run.
I started out patient and disciplined, betting the $25 minimum and raising hands progressively on winning streaks.  I was up and down repeatedly for two hours.  Finally, at 4:00 am, I was down to $150 and went all TBC -- a $50 bet after a series of losing hands, which lost, followed by a $100 bet (you have to win one eventually, right?), which lost.  Busto and down $600 for the night/morning/whatever-it-was.  Time for some sleep.
The next morning, I hit the pool for some sun.

By noon, the rest of the "gentlemen" had all arrived, and we grabbed some lunch at Todd English P.U.B. -- one of my favorite afternoon spots in Vegas.   The remainder of the afternoon and evening was spent betting sports.  I ended the trip 10-1-1 at the book (following my 7-1 run last month), but unfortunately, was betting the games like an ugly school girl -- $50 a game.  I know absolutely nothing about NCAA basketball or the NBA.  My wagers have nothing to do with sports knowledge.  Instead, I've been basing my plays on a "system" that uses information available on covers.com.    In short, I compare the public consensus for a game against the consensus of the Cover's "team experts," and look for notable divergences.  For instance, assume Team A plays Team B.  I know shit about shit about either.  But I see that the overall consensus is 78% on team A, while the "team experts" are 69% on Team B.  Team B is my play.  Most games, of course, don't fall into this system.  Either the consensus are not marked enough, or both the overall and the experts are on the same side.  Thus, it's difficult to find many games to bet, and it requires some discipline to abstain from wagering until something comes up.  Because of this, there were several afternoons I had zero NCAA bets.  And, most of my plays ended up being on the NBA, which is absolutely fucken unwatchable.  It also takes a good hour or so each morning to consider the information, which sort of sucks.  And, of course my sample size is still crazy small - could all just be variance.  Who knows.
Thursday evening, we hit the black jack tables again.  This time, P3 got the best of Jim Murren:
Friday morning began with a four-mile run down the Strip, from Aria South past Mandalay Bay.  Seriously.  I'm not lieing.  I have photographic proof:

Fake Elvis was stationed at the Welcome sign playing a guitar.  I offered to take his picture next to the sign for $10.  He was not amused.  I ran away.
Friday afternoon was spent at El Diablos, where we crashed the Arizona Alumni Association pregame festivities and had beverage.  That was followed by a trip to the Pub at Monte Carlo (I miss Purple Reign . . .).  Then it was off to NY, NY and Nine Fine Irishmen to pay respects to the crazy dancing old Japanese midget lady.   At 2:30 am, I was done for the night.
Saturday morning came, and it was time to get down on some MLB-futures action.   Not sure if I made smart bets or not; but I really just wanted to have something to root for this year besides the Mets' young dynamic duo of Harvey and Wheeler.
If I split, I'll be happy.

Saturday was more of the same -- a trip to the book at Bellagio for the Cards-Cuse game, some black jack, drinks across the street at Heart Bar, followed by more black jack.
I woke up Sunday morning and tallied the damage.  Not counting the MLB bets, I was the opposite of up . . . but nothing intolerable.  Overall, a successful trip.  Now, a four month wait until a return to the desert during WSOP.


  1. Wow - a TBC-like martingale play at blackjack. Mr Peters, I am impressed!

    Sounds like a fun trip. Interesting system for picking basketball games. I used a similar system in the past to pick some horses and had mixed success.