DC

DC

Monday, May 25, 2015

Downswing

Easy come, easy go . . .

So, I stayed in town this weekend, largely because I have to get a draft of a mediation brief finished by tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.  I worked on it most of the day Saturday, before heading out to Jiffy Lube Live in the late afternoon to catch the DMB show.  I got home Saturday night about 1:30 am.  

Yesterday, a awoke around 9:00.  Fairly tired.  But, I needed to bust out a few more hours of work.  By 1:30, I realized that the O's were home against Houston starting Monday afternoon.  So, I went on Hotwire, and got a cheap room at the Hilton across from the Yard, and headed to Baltimore for the night.  I checked into the hotel, and decided to work a few more hours before grabbing dinner and playing poker at the Horseshoe . . .  I brought the Macbook down to the hotel bar, and drafted over a few cold beers:


After a standard dinner at Mortons, I got to the poker room around 10:30 and bought in for $300.  Second hand dealt - AA UTG.  I raise to $15, and it folds around.   I believe I sent a text to Rob complaining about my lack of action.  He responded, "better than getting them cracked."  Well, I was saving that for later.

Over the course of three hours, I got my ass kicked in.  No big destruction . . . just lots of small losses.  I had Ax countless times, made standard $15 raises, and missed.  Did not hit once.  Sometimes I C-Bet to lose another $25 or $30.  Some times I just gave up.

I raised 56 hearts in late position one hand.  Flop was two hearts.  I bet flop and got called . . . I bet the blank on the turn . . . and got called . . . River was a heart, giving me my flush . . . I bet the river . . . and got called by T8 hearts for the bigger flush . . .

I played another draw later on, betting flop, checking turn, and firing a $66 bluff on the river (about $1/3 pot) on a K-high board . . . got called by 999.  Oooops.

I raised QT to $15 on the button, and spiked a Queen on the flop.  Ultimately, I lose a decent pot to a turned flush.  Dude played 95 hearts.  Yep. 

I raised AJ suited to $15, and lose to 86 off (pair of 8's . . .). Yep.

In fact, I won only two hands all night.  The first, I open raised 9T, basically just making a move because I had not won a hand to that point. Got three callers on a Q high board, made a C-bet and took it down.   I won another hand with A-high on a C-Bet.  That was it.  Yes, for the entire night.  That was it.

I added on to my stack at several points, and found myself in for $500.  Finally, sitting on my last $140 or so, I once again find AA, this time in the SB.  6 people limp into the pot, and I raise to $30.  All six limpers call.  FML.  Flop is 992.  Not bad.  I shove my last $100 and get called in two spots, one of whom has 99 for flopped quads.  Done.

So, after finally working my way out of a hole for 2015, I'm quickly down $500 again.  I love poker.

And, to top it off, because I stayed up late (trying to get UNSTUCK, u see), I was unable to get up early to work a few more hours this morning before the O's game.  So, I woke up across the street to this . . .


. . . and proceeded to drive home to spend the afternoon working . . .

Running bad . . .

Monday, May 18, 2015

Upswing

Another weekend has come and gone.  As usually, it's Monday, and I'm exhausted . . .

I woke up Sunday morning in Baltimore (not by accident, mind you).  It was about 10:00 am.  I had just spent the past two days with my oldest friend from High School.  We drank Friday night at a local bar.  Then, Saturday, we got festivities rolling at 1:00 pm with the Rangers game, and kept the train going until 2:00 when we shut down the James Joyce Tavern in Baltimore.  In any event, he left around 8:30 Sunday morning to head home to the wife.  I had a ticket for the 1:35 O's game, but the weather was looking semi-shady.  Plus, I didn't really feel much like hanging out for nearly 4 hours until first pitch.  Also, I had sort of had enough . . .  I wasn't hung over (P3 is a professional degenerate [yo]u see).  Just tired AS FUCK.    So, I got in the car and started driving home.  I got half way back to Bethesda when the caffeine from my giant Starbucks started kicking in.  And then I remembered - I'm suppose to be living life to the fullest.  Going home to spend Sunday on the couch catching up on GOT's does not constitute YOLO'ing (is that a thing?).  So, I swung the car around . . . picked up a second giant Starbucks, and went right back to Baltimore.

Long story short, the weather held out . . . The O's won the game . . . The Mets also won their second in a row . . . and all was right in the world.

So, after the game, I walked back to the Shoe, where my car was parked.  It was only 5:00.  I decided to sit down and play some hands.  Yes, I was still tired.  But, I had had a few beers at the game, and wanted to make sure I was 100% sober to drive home.  So, what better way to sober up a bit than by playing an hour or so . . .

It was a short, yet sweet, session.  I got QQ . . . opened to $15 . . . got two callers . . . and hit a set.  I fired the flop, but it folded around.

A while later, I got KK.  After one limper, I raised to $15 . . . this time, I got 5 callers.  Yuck.  The flop was 5 9 A.  Double Yuck.   It checked to me.  I'm assuming one of these 5 callers has Ax, right?  Yet, I couldn't get myself to check and let someone take the pot from me.  So, I led for $65.  Somehow, it folded around.  This could be my day.

In the middle of my session, I looked down at QT clubs in middle position.  I was temped to play the hand; but, before action got to me, someone raised to $12.  I laid it down.  They went to the flop of K 4 7 . . . all clubs.  FML, to steal Lightning's phrase...  It checked to original raiser, who bet $20 or so.  He got called.  The turn blanked.  It checked to raiser who bet $65.  Other player, who was $700 + deep, re-raised to $150 and got an all-in (for like another $40).  Raiser had Big Slick.  Caller/check-raiser had A9 . . . clubs . . . Pete Peters dodged a bullet there!!!  With the second nuts on the flop, I'm not sure I would have gotten away from my flush.  Not with any chips left, at least . . .  This definitely could be my day.

Just before racking up, I looked down at  J 9 clubs.  It limps to me, and I come along in late position.    I could have raised.  Maybe I should have raised.  But, as mentioned, I was sort of in shut down mode and was not looking to build a big pot pre-flop with the hand.  Anyway, the flop is a 782 rainbow.  Dude leads for $8.  He has $1,000 behind.  I call, as a Ten would give me a fairly well disguised straight and some good implied odds.   And, as a bonus, the woman next to me comes along (with about $100+ behind).   And, since its my day, the turn is a Ten.   This time, guy leads for $50.  I just call, feeling pretty confident my hand is in little jeopardy of getting sucked out on.  I could raise, but I sort of want the woman to come alone.  And, she does.  The pot is approximately $180.  And the river is a Queen, making the final board 782TQ.  Dude leads for $65.  Woman has about that behind.  A raise could scare her off; but, then again, if she has any kind of solid hand, she may feel pot committed even if she suspects I may be stronger.   So I make it $200.  Woman calls.  Sadly, dude folds.  Still, a decent $500+ pot.  

I walked around 7:00.  Utterly exhausted from 3 days of debauchery. 

So, as you may recall, as of April 10th, I was down a little over $1,000 for the year (at about 65 hours or so played).  These results were, IMO, a combination of 3 months of running bad (mainly card dead), with a bit of bad-play and/or some drunken stupidity mixed in (e.g., like the $465 I lost last month in a Saturday night, post O's game, post 10 beers, session).  Some nights, I'll sit down after too many cocktails and play just to have some fun.  But, I still count these sessions in my results.  Hell, if I happen to luck box on these nights, I'd surely be tempted to count positive results.  Plus, there's often a thin line between being nicely lubricated to play a solid, confident, TAG game, and being overly intoxicated to the point of being the table fish.  So, I simply count every session I play.

Fortunately, the past month my luck has turned around, and I've been running well.  And, last night, I finally broke through to the black:



As Vegas Rob suggested last night, possibly sarcastically, I may not be able to retire on 10 cents an hour.  But, it's a moral victory to me.  Hopefully, I can build upon this and work my rate up to $10 an hour or so.  

-P3


Monday, May 11, 2015

Atlantic City Trip Report

I took off from work Friday afternoon around 4:15.  And sat in traffic.  Like, a lot of traffic.  I arrived at Harrah's at 10:00.  Not a good start to the weekend.  However, after checking in and getting upgraded to the Waterfront Tower (fully comped), my luck began to change.   I grabbed a beer, sat down at a VP machine and, within the first twenty minutes, hit my second Royal Flush of the year:

  
 Like my first, it was runner, runner, runner. Clean living!

I played a bit more 100-hand VP, lost $100, and then shut it down . . . had some beers, and watched the NHL playoffs . . .  

Saturday morning, I was up at the crack of 11:00 . . . grabbed some coffee while grinding some more VP (lost another $100), and then banged out a quick 3-mile run.  Then it was off to Bally's to play some poker.

The afternoon session began around 3:00.  And, it was awful.  We were 5 handed most of the first hour, as half the table decided to get up at once:


We spent an hour trading blinds.  Zero action.  It was nearly too much excitement.  Only a few half-way memorable hands.  I had AA in the small blind once.  An older guy, sitting on about $65, opened UTG to $15.  It folded to me.  I figured, if a nit opens to $15 UTG, he's strong enough to put his remaining $50 in the middle pre flop.  So, I shoved.  The old fucker folder.  Ugh.  

Eventually, when the table filled back up, I got into one interesting hand.   I had $300 behind, and called an $11 raise with 66.   The raiser had been gone from the table most of the session.  The one hand I did see him play, he opened to $11, saw a paintless flop, bet $22 or so, got called, and gave up on the turn.  I took his hand for Ax, standard C-bet.   Anyhow, this time around, we went four to the flop ($45 in pot) -- 345.  Raiser is first to act, and pots it.  Early position folds and action is on me.  Raiser has about $80 behind (after his $45 flop bet), and to my left is a short stack.  I actually think my 66 may be good in this spot.  Plus, I've got the redraw.  So, what's the play here?

I ended my afternoon session after 3 hours, and went to Toga Bar at Caesars to watch some baseball.  And play some sweet, sweet VP, of course, [yo]u see.  I threw $50 in the machine, and hit aces:


Easy game.

Then it was off to dinner at Morton's.  Filet, 3 glasses of Primal Cut Cabernet . . . Like three-betting QQ -- Standard.

After dinner, I cabbed back to Harrah's for a late night session.  



This was definitely an action table that made up for Bally's.  We had a Crazian, and an even crazier Russian next to him.  I built up a decent stack over the course of 2 hours . . . top pair . . . c-betting missed flops . . . hit a straight with J8, et cetera.  No tough spots.  Then I pick up AA under the gun.      I was hoping to get paid this time.  I open to $14.  Older guy re-raises to $35.  He has about $150 left.  It folds around to me.  I four bet to $105.  He shoves, and tables KK . . . . Several folks at the other  end of the table were vocally calling for a K.  But, my Aces held.  After the hand, I was joking around with the table about them rooting for the old guy.  I told them they were all on my list . . . They explained, "yeah, but if he won, he would have shared the wealth  . . ." So, I guess I took it as a complement.

About 3 hours in, I was up $375 or so, and started racking up.  If there's one lesson I've learned from poker pro, Tony Bicharles, it's that a pro never leaves a good game. But, I had Mets tickets to the game in Philly Sunday, and wanted to get some rest.  Plus, I'm not a poker pro.  So, I decided to leave.  But one last orbit, of course . . .  And, just as I'm about to walk, I look down at 33.  Someone opens to $13, gets a call, and I figure, what the hell . . .  Flop comes down 3 7 9 rainbow.  It checks to raiser, who bets $35.  I flat.  3rd player folds.  Heads up to the blank on the turn.  Villain (Crazy Russian) bets $65.  He has about $130 left.  I decide to play my set like a set (yes, I'm that awesome at poker) and shove.  He snaps and tables KK.  Easy game.  I walked an orbit later, up $626 or so . . .

Sunday morning, I awoke around 9:00 . . . got some coffee . . . played a bit more VP . . . and, at 11:00, took off for Philly.  Left AC up $1,700.  Good thing, as I'm starting to put together my sweet, sweet roll for my eight day trip to Vegas in a few short weeks . . . I was hoping not to lose too much this weekend.  A nearly 2 grand win was an even better result.

I got to Philly around 12:15, and parked my car at the Holiday Inn about 3/4 mile from Citizen's Bank Ball Park.   I backed my G37 into a space in front of some shrubs, hiding the back of my vehicle.  I have a Mets license plate frame, [yo]u see, and I don;t want my tires slashed by the local savages.  It was a perfect day for a game.  I was seated 12 rows back of the visiting Mets dugout:




With 41 year old Bartolo Colon on the mound, the Mets picked up the 7-4 victory, and walked the line:


#LGM. . .  And, for the aforementioned Mr. Bigcharles, in response to his twitter comment, yes, this clearly stands for "Lesbian, Gay, Mash-Taters" . . .

In sum, it's been a good week for P3.  Not dying.  Made money in AC.  Mets take 2/3.  In fact, I'm feeling so good, I figure I'll share the wealth, and end this post with the following . . . Some Alice Eve, for you fans of "acting":






-P3

Friday, May 8, 2015

Pete P. Peters Patented Bases Betting System

I have a system for betting baseball.  No, for real.  I do.  It has nothing to do with my knowledge of the game.  It has nothing to do with matchups.  It has nothing to do with baseball statistics.  Rather, it's based 100%, like, entirely, upon consensus figures and pitting the "public" plays versus the "sharp" action. 

Each day, I go to a certain web site and spend 10 to 15 minutes looking at numbers.  On any given day, there may be 1 play . . . or 2 plays . . . or, sometimes, no plays.  Some plays appear super strong . . . some less strong.  There is certainly some discretion involved on my end in determining whether a system play is strong enough to actually bet.  Sometimes, I look to additional factors, such as the line movement from the open to see if it is consistent with the consensus figures and related factors I'm primarily relying upon.  But, I try to stick to my system. 

Over the past three summers, during my 8 to 9-day Vegas trips, I've never lost money betting bases.  Of course, the 50 or so plays I laid during this time hardly make a strong enough sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions regarding P3's super system for betting bases.  Plus, the system is so easy and brainless, if it truly did work, wouldn't many people be on to it? 

For several years, I've been quite curious about the long-term efficacy of this system.  So, a month ago, I set up a Bitcoin account on Nitrogen Sports.  I funded it with a mere Bitcoin.  And I set out to test my system, once and for all, over the course of a full season. 

Now, I'm not really trying to make money.  I'm not looking to bet large enough to actually win anything meaningful.  I don't need to supplement my income through gambling.  Similar to my poker action, I'm doing this for fun.  I'm just trying to beat the book over the course of a full season to see whether or not it's possible.  Accordingly, my "Unit" is .025 of a Bitcoin, the true monetary value of which is constantly in flux.  If Bitcoin were worth $1,000, this would be equivalent of a $25 bet. Given Bitcoin's current value, it's prolly something more like $6 or $7 a play.  Again, I don't care about the value.  I just want to test the system against the book.  I take all dogs for .025, and I usually try to bet chalk to win .025.  Therefore, for instance, I'd lay .05 on a -200 favorite. 

So, how has the experiment been going?  Not bad. 

As of today, May 8th, the results are as follows:

RECORD: 32-19   

+ 13.88 Units  

I started out pretty poorly the first few weeks.  This was not really a surprise based on the nature of the system.  I suspect it should/will get stronger as the season goes on and one subset of figures I use grows in sample size.  Or, of course, maybe this is all just variance and I am a tool.  Time will tell.

-P3            

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Life Update

Last weekend, I escaped to one of my favorite places - The Diplomat Resort, in Hollywood Florida.  Weather was good and, as usual, the experience did not disappoint.  It was a relaxing weekend of sun, surf, cold beverages and sports.  And, I even managed to get a filet and some cabernet in at the resort's steakhouse.






Monday, upon my return, I worked half a day, then left to prepare for some medical tests I had scheduled Tuesday, which included a colonoscopy.  Results of a physical from last month gave rise to the need for additional testing.  Suffice it to say, I am a hypochondriac to begin with.  Hell, I once thought I had a tumor growing in the middle of my chest.  I eventually went to a doctor to have it evaluated.  The doctor looked at me like I was fucken retarded, and told me it was my sternum, and that, like, it would likely not kill me...  But, this was somewhat different, since there was a legitimate medical basis for follow up testing.  It was on my mind - front and center - every day for the past month.  Over that period, I think I developed nearly every symptom of colon cancer.  The mind is a crazy thing. Anyhow, I was anxious to finally at least get some clarity.

Now, I had heard fantastic things about colonoscopies.  And, while most people have to wait until 55 or so for their first, I was lucky enough to get to experience the procedure at 42.  Actually, it was not bad at all.  I wasn't troubled much at all by the 24 hours of no solid food, or the 4 liters of solution that must be drinked, drank, drunked the night before.  Honestly, while not pleasant, it really was not all that bad.  And, the procedure itself is nothing to write home about, since they basically put you out for it.  The worst part, for me at least, was coming to terms with the fact that the doctor puts you to sleep and, some short while later, just as you awake, he basically tells you whether you are fucked or not . . . whether your life has just drastically changed.  Fortunately for me, my life does not appear to have changed . . . Although, apparently, I am lucky enough to already have an enlarged prostate, which needs further follow-up.  Good times . . . Could I BE any more attractive to the ladies?  Short . . . middle-aged AND an enlarged prostate?

In other news, now that I am [relatively] confident I'm not dying, I rescheduled my Vegas trip for the week of June 5-14th . . . Staying at Signature for eight days.   I also decided to take advantage of my upcoming mediation on June 2nd in Miami by booking a room at the Loews Miami Beach Resort for the weekend prior.  I mean, if my legal arguments are gonna suck, I might as well show up tanned and rested.  After all, it seemed to work for the guys on LA Law, right?


And, finally, tomorrow, I'm off to AC to finally get some live poker in (I haven't played a hand since Caesars Vegas over a month ago.  I'll likely also stop by Citizen's Bank Ball Park for the Mets-Phillies game Sunday afternoon on the way home . . . Gotta live life to the fullest and all . . .

-P3