I have a system for betting baseball. No, for real. I do. It has nothing to do with my knowledge of the game. It has nothing to do with matchups. It has nothing to do with baseball statistics. Rather, it's based 100%, like, entirely, upon consensus figures and pitting the "public" plays versus the "sharp" action.
Each day, I go to a certain web site and spend 10 to 15 minutes looking at numbers. On any given day, there may be 1 play . . . or 2 plays . . . or, sometimes, no plays. Some plays appear super strong . . . some less strong. There is certainly some discretion involved on my end in determining whether a system play is strong enough to actually bet. Sometimes, I look to additional factors, such as the line movement from the open to see if it is consistent with the consensus figures and related factors I'm primarily relying upon. But, I try to stick to my system.
Over the past three summers, during my 8 to 9-day Vegas trips, I've never lost money betting bases. Of course, the 50 or so plays I laid during this time hardly make a strong enough sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions regarding P3's super system for betting bases. Plus, the system is so easy and brainless, if it truly did work, wouldn't many people be on to it?
For several years, I've been quite curious about the long-term efficacy of this system. So, a month ago, I set up a Bitcoin account on Nitrogen Sports. I funded it with a mere Bitcoin. And I set out to test my system, once and for all, over the course of a full season.
Now, I'm not really trying to make money. I'm not looking to bet large enough to actually win anything meaningful. I don't need to supplement my income through gambling. Similar to my poker action, I'm doing this for fun. I'm just trying to beat the book over the course of a full season to see whether or not it's possible. Accordingly, my "Unit" is .025 of a Bitcoin, the true monetary value of which is constantly in flux. If Bitcoin were worth $1,000, this would be equivalent of a $25 bet. Given Bitcoin's current value, it's prolly something more like $6 or $7 a play. Again, I don't care about the value. I just want to test the system against the book. I take all dogs for .025, and I usually try to bet chalk to win .025. Therefore, for instance, I'd lay .05 on a -200 favorite.
So, how has the experiment been going? Not bad.
As of today, May 8th, the results are as follows:
+ 13.88 Units
I started out pretty poorly the first few weeks. This was not really a surprise based on the nature of the system. I suspect it should/will get stronger as the season goes on and one subset of figures I use grows in sample size. Or, of course, maybe this is all just variance and I am a tool. Time will tell.