DC

DC

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Plans. (which i never do)

Tomorrow is the day I attempt to grind 2,500 Caesars tier credits. Why?  Because I want to . . .

Yesterday, I did some rough calculations to try to estimate how long this will take.  Running $25,000 coin-in doesn't sound too difficult.  But, apparently, it's a lot of play.  The key will be how many hands of 100-hand VP I can play in a minute.  Typically, I draw and, unless I'm dealt a particularly "interesting hand," e.g., trips or 4 to a straight flush/royal, I'll zip through the 100 hands on turbo, which does not take long.  I'm estimating I can get through between 5 and 10 hands a minute.  That's a wide range.  At $5 a hand, which is my normal comfort level, I'd need to play 5,000 hands to hit the number.  Assuming the number is more like 6 hands a minute (10 seconds a hand), it would take 14 hours to reach 2,500 credits.  But that's 14 hours of non-stop, focused, grinding.  In reality, and factoring in the impact of delicious beer, the number would likely be more like 18 hours. And, that assumes I have non-stop access to one of the four hundred hand machines at Harrah's
 
So, I think I'm adjusting the plan and will attempt to play $10 a hand.  This, of course, will increase the variance.  If I run bad, I could dig a deep hole . . . quickly.  Failure is an option. 
 
I also have to decide what game to play.  Given I'll be increasing my sweet, sweet unit, I think I'll start with Jacks or Better and take the 2-1 return on two-pair, while sacrificing the potential for a big score with quads.  Depending how it goes, perhaps I'll switch over to DDB, which is normally my game of choice.  Maybe mix in some DW . . .
 
Frankly, if I start out terribly and am running far below expected EV by the 1,000 TC mark, I may shut it down (and collect the 1,000 bonus) and head to the $1/2 tables.  In my head, I'm targeting $2,000 to $2,500 as max pain to reach $25,000 coin in.  Of course, I'd like to lose far less.  Hell, I'd like to WIN; but we all know that's not going to happen unless I hit some stupid good hands.  I'm confident I could grind at $5 a hand and keep the losses within this range; but I'm not sure what impact raising the bet to $10 will have.
 
To be continued . . .     

16 comments:

  1. The results of this should be VERY interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The basic JoB strategy is the simplest of VP options to remember even when drunk. So JoB is the best choice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I plan on leaving for AC by 6:00 am; so, I'll be grinding with coffee for several hours . . . planning on getting a mid-afternoon run in . . . so won't be hitting the sauce until later in the evening. Sobriety should not be an issue on this endeavor

      Delete
    2. Have you factored in bathroom trips? this could increase the amount of time it takes.

      Delete
  3. The epitome of "first world problems..." :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Make sure you find one of dem good machines, u see.

    ReplyDelete
  5. when r u going to do a blog on Little Ponies????

    ReplyDelete
  6. You could do the 5c 50 play - $12.50 a pop, from experience you can grind out 1000 points in about 4 hour. 2500 points easy 8 - 10 hours. Variance can be a bitch but never down more than $800 and ended up $300 due to a flurry of made hands. Tip the cocktail waitress $10 first time and I promise your drink will never be 1/2 empty rest of your time playing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Solid degen vp advice. You have now added motivation to the PPP plan. PPP = TBC + money?

      Delete
    2. Solid degen vp advice. You have now added motivation to the PPP plan. PPP = TBC + money?

      Delete
  7. i think the VBJ would pay better, but have lower rate of comps

    ReplyDelete
  8. Can't wait for updates.... Hope you're running hotter than TBC on his last big push to 20K!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Good luck, should be a good read after you get back.

    ReplyDelete
  10. So all the point which as you mention i am totally agreed.
    Thanks for your kind information.
    goldenslot
    สูตรบาคาร่า

    ReplyDelete