DC

DC

Sunday, May 7, 2017

One Hand

I had been itching to play some poker all week.  Initially, I booked a room at National Harbor Friday-Saturday, and planned to play all weekend at MGMNH.  But, as often happens, work got in the way and I had to cancel.   Then, Friday, mid-morning, I thought, "screw it," and decided I'd leave work around 2:00 and at least spend Friday night at MGMNH.  But, as often happens, work got in the way ... no less than 4 clients called / emailed with things they needed, like, immediately. Friday night was shot.

So, yesterday (Saturday) a woke up with intentions of working.  But then I realized Dylan Bundy was throwing at the Yard at 7:05 and decided to go. And then I figured, "if I'm going to Baltimore for the evening, I might as well just leave now and play some poker . . ."  And so, I did.  Of course, now, Sunday morning, I'm pretty fucked and need to figure out how to cram 10 hours or so of work into the day.  But, any way . . .

This hand occurred late in my session.  The set up: $1/3 NL.  My stack is about $450.  Villain -- an early 30's, married, black Uber driver / part-time pimp for white drug addicts -- had just sat down with a fresh $300.  He's in position.  

Botton straddles to $10. UTG+1 (an older gent) raises to $25.  It folds to me, and I look down at AA.  Straddler had been re-popping; but the UTG+1 raise looks strong and I decide I can't count on him to raise in this spot.  So, I make it $75.  To my surprise, villain tanks and flats.  Botton and UTG+1 let it go.

Flop: Q J 3.

My initial thought - "yuck."  I check, figuring I'm either way ahead or way behind.  Villain sticks in his last $225 in green chips without hesitation.  I make the call . . .  Turn is a K (double Yuck) and river blanks . . .

My thought process at the time -- There's $400 in the pot.  I'm not folding my AA.  If he flopped the set, good for him.

Soon after leaving, I texted Vegas Rob, who fired off a "Terrible call by you . . ."  Of course, I don't think this was based on any analysis of the hand.  More like Rob just trying to kick me in the nutz 😏...   But it prompted some post hoc analysis of the hand.   My three-bet to $75 screams monster, particularly since I had not gotten out of line all day.  AA or KK for sure.  Probably QQ.  Maybe TT to JJ.  So, when it folds around to Uber Driver, assuming he's a thinking player, what's his flatting range?  If I'm him, I'm mucking JJ.  I have to believe that I'm more than likely set mining, and at $75 with $300 effective, it does not make sense.  Moreover, if I'm Uber Driver and I have QQ, it makes it much less likely that the $75 three-bet is QQ.  So, again, what am I ahead of?  TT or JJ?  And both of those are at the very bottom of the three-better's range....  So, given the action and the stack size, isn't the flopped set somewhat unlikely?  Or, am I just trying to rationalize a terrible call?  

The King on the turn, of course, was particularly gross, but . . .

Oh, and by the way:  Villain's hand revealed below:
























Villain flipped 77.  Speaking of terrible calls . . . .



7 comments:

  1. Even more interesting to hear would be your analysis had the river been a 7.

    ReplyDelete
  2. If he flopped the set, good for him.

    Even though I fold more than most players, I actually agree with this. If you know the player and can be absolutely sure they have it, then fine, fold. There are so many push-monkeys, however, who will bet like this with crap (like 7-7), it's just not worth it to fold. Besides, it's only money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've folded more than my share of AA over the past few years. More times than I care to remember, someone showed down a worse hand. Lately, I've been trying to welcome a bit more variance into my life... This time, it worked out for P3...

      Delete
  3. I also would not have folded. Don't mind Rob, he is a rock! :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yeah, someday Rob will see the value in hands like Q-10 sooted.

    ReplyDelete
  5. For the record, when I gave my initial reaction to PPP, I was up to my ass in trying to bring a dying computer back to life, and wasn't giving the hand my undivided attention. When he reminded me of the stacks and the pot-size, I agreed that it was a good call. Especially since I already knew the result.

    There's one thing I will say about Q-10 sooooted, Lightning....it's a much better hand than KK.

    ReplyDelete
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