I had been itching to play some poker all week. Initially, I booked a room at National Harbor Friday-Saturday, and planned to play all weekend at MGMNH. But, as often happens, work got in the way and I had to cancel. Then, Friday, mid-morning, I thought, "screw it," and decided I'd leave work around 2:00 and at least spend Friday night at MGMNH. But, as often happens, work got in the way ... no less than 4 clients called / emailed with things they needed, like, immediately. Friday night was shot.
So, yesterday (Saturday) a woke up with intentions of working. But then I realized Dylan Bundy was throwing at the Yard at 7:05 and decided to go. And then I figured, "if I'm going to Baltimore for the evening, I might as well just leave now and play some poker . . ." And so, I did. Of course, now, Sunday morning, I'm pretty fucked and need to figure out how to cram 10 hours or so of work into the day. But, any way . . .
This hand occurred late in my session. The set up: $1/3 NL. My stack is about $450. Villain -- an early 30's, married, black Uber driver / part-time pimp for white drug addicts -- had just sat down with a fresh $300. He's in position.
Botton straddles to $10. UTG+1 (an older gent) raises to $25. It folds to me, and I look down at AA. Straddler had been re-popping; but the UTG+1 raise looks strong and I decide I can't count on him to raise in this spot. So, I make it $75. To my surprise, villain tanks and flats. Botton and UTG+1 let it go.
Flop: Q J 3.
My initial thought - "yuck." I check, figuring I'm either way ahead or way behind. Villain sticks in his last $225 in green chips without hesitation. I make the call . . . Turn is a K (double Yuck) and river blanks . . .
My thought process at the time -- There's $400 in the pot. I'm not folding my AA. If he flopped the set, good for him.
Soon after leaving, I texted Vegas Rob, who fired off a "Terrible call by you . . ." Of course, I don't think this was based on any analysis of the hand. More like Rob just trying to kick me in the nutz 😏... But it prompted some post hoc analysis of the hand. My three-bet to $75 screams monster, particularly since I had not gotten out of line all day. AA or KK for sure. Probably QQ. Maybe TT to JJ. So, when it folds around to Uber Driver, assuming he's a thinking player, what's his flatting range? If I'm him, I'm mucking JJ. I have to believe that I'm more than likely set mining, and at $75 with $300 effective, it does not make sense. Moreover, if I'm Uber Driver and I have QQ, it makes it much less likely that the $75 three-bet is QQ. So, again, what am I ahead of? TT or JJ? And both of those are at the very bottom of the three-better's range.... So, given the action and the stack size, isn't the flopped set somewhat unlikely? Or, am I just trying to rationalize a terrible call?
The King on the turn, of course, was particularly gross, but . . .
Oh, and by the way: Villain's hand revealed below:
Villain flipped 77. Speaking of terrible calls . . . .