First, I believe it's beyond doubt that Russia interfered with the 2016 election. It may not have rigged vote tallies or physically interfered with voting apparatus; but it intentionally took action to, and likely did, influence votes through hacking, social media and otherwise.
Second, to date, I do not believe there has been any evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and/or administration on the one hand, and Russian officials on the other.
This, however, does not necessarily render the current investigation(s) a "witch hunt" or otherwise mean that collusion did not occur. The pro-trump headlines, and the statements from the Orange Orangutan in the Oval Office, declaring vindication, are simply wrong. There appears to be plenty of indicia of wrongdoing to justify the appointment of the Special Counsel to investigate. And it wasn't "fake news" that lead the Deputy AG to make the appointment. Until the investigation is complete, conclusions are simply premature.
If this is truly smoke without fire, then Trump appears to be engaged in a cover-up without a crime. It's hard to conceive of a way in which Trump could possibly look more guilty.
Take, for instance, the timing of his firing of Jim Comey and the obviously pre-textual justification he gave in the termination letter (which he backed off of almost immediately the next day).
Take his interactions with Comey prior to the termination in which he asked Comey for loyalty and asked him to cut Flynn a break. Trump was either exerting pressure or engaging in wildly inappropriate conduct. The Right claims he's merely inexperienced to the ways of Washington. This explanation would be more credible had he not taken explicit action on these occasions to isolate himself with Comey. Regardless whether Trump's actions were unethical and ill-motivated or simply based on stupidity (like, and unprecedented level of Presidential stupid), it does not look good.
Take Trump's lies about his interactions with Comey. Comey testifies that Trump asked him for Loyalty. Trump, during a prior interview on Fox, expressly denies the conversation took place. Comey testifies Trump asked him to let Flynn go. Trump, again, denies the conversation took place. If you've listened to both sides, there seems to be little room for misunderstanding; one of them is lying. Who do you believe? Again, regardless whether there's any underlying crime, this paints Trump in poor light.
And then there's the clear pattern of omissions of contacts with Russians by Trump associates, from Flynn, to Sessions, to Kushner. Standing in isolation, this might seem innocuous. But, in context, it appears strange at the very least.
Finally -- and this is the point that bothers me most -- given the Russian's actions to interfere with the 2016 election, why does Trump appear to favor Putin over our European allies? Wouldn't any reasonable President be pushing back - HARD -- against the Russians given what our intelligence agencies now know? Wouldn't the President be focused on sanctions and taking other action to prevent further Russian interference in our democracy? But Trump has taken the opposite approach, exemplified by the absurd meeting with Sergey Kislyak and others in the oval office the next day after the Comey firing, during which Trump (a) invited no U.S. media, (b) bragged about firing Comey to the very people Comey was investigating, and (c) spilled classified information. Taken in context, could Trump try harder to look in cahoots with the Russians?
Ultimately, despite the media and social media circus and constant headlines, this investigation is likely a long way from over. Any legitimate investigation will follow the money trail. What financial connections did Trump have with Russians. How about his various corporations? His kids? His affiliates? I'm confident that Director Mueller is pulling on these strings. Was there collusion or other wrongdoing? I have no idea. I've yet to see any indication there was. In the end, Trump's only crime may be being too dumb to lead. I can certainly live with whatever conclusions Mueller draws. But in the meantime, lets let the process play itself out.